York Dante Meeting 2017
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York Dante Meeting 2017

In this months article I have had a look at this months Dante Meeting to see if I can find any useful systems (micro). The meeting takes place over 3 days in mid May. I have used HorseRaceBase to produce all the following stats and micro systems. All are based on years 2012 onwards.

The first area I have looked at is how the favourites fare at the meeting

  • Favourites (includes joint and co) 32 winners from 117 (27.25%) +4.35 points.
  • Non Favourites - 73 winners from 1175 runners (6.21%) - 286.62 points.

Obviously favourites perform well at this meeting and simply by backing all of the blindly would have resulted in a very small profit.

Taking only the favourites I looked to see if there were any trends over certain distances.

  • 5f: 6 wins from 28 runners (-10.34 points)
  • 6f: 4 wins from 17 runners (+2.83 points)
  • 7f: 5 wins from 8 runners (+15.25 points)
  • 1m: 3 wins from14 runners (+0.02 points)
  • 1m2.5f: 9 wins from 23 runners(+7.27 points)
  • 1m4f: 4 wins from 16 runners (-4.36 points)
  • 1m6f+: 1 win from 11 runners (-5.5 points)

What is interesting from the above is the performance of the specialist distances of 7f and 1m2.5f over which there are a high percentage of winners. I would certainly pay more attention to a fav running over this distance this year.

Next I looked at the finishing position of the favourites.

  • No Run: 2 wins from 4 runners (+3.33 points)
  • 1st: 19 wins from 53 runners (+7.06 points)
  • 2nd: 5 wins from 22 runners (+4.88 points)
  • 3rd or worse: 6 wins from 38 points (-10.92 points)

It would seem wise to pay special attention to those favourites with the best recent form, although I would not be put off by any horse racing for the first time.

Finally I looked at which trainers perform well with their favourites at this meeting. The top 5 are listed below.

  • D O'Meara: 2 wins from 3 runners (66.67%) +3.75 points
  • Sir Michael Stoute: 5 wins from 9 runners (55.56%) +5.21 points
  • S Bin Suroor: 2 wins from 4 runners (50%) +7.25 points
  • JHM Gosden: 5 wins from 11 runners (45.45 points) +6.22 points
  • R Fahey: 4 wins from 12 runners (33%) +6.58 points

Conversely the 3 trainers below have the worst record when their horses start favourite.

  • TD Easterby: 0 wins from 4 runners
  • KA Ryan: 0 wins from 5 runners
  • WJ Haggas: 0 wins from 6 runners

Micro System 1

The first micro system from the above stats is as follows.

  1. D, O'Meara, Sir M Stoute, S Bin Suroor, JHM Gosden, R Fahey
  2. LTO - 1st, 2nd or had no previous run
  3. Horse starts favourite

17 winners from 32 runners (53.13%) +32.36 points.

This performs well above expected (as should be 10.5 winners)

Trainers to Follow at the Meeting

There are only two trainers that usually do well with their runners at this meeting and they are.

  • Sir M Stoute: 7 winners from 22 runners (31.82%)
  • JHM Gosden: 10 winners from 32 runners (31.25%)

I will now have a closer look at the two trainers.

Sir M. Stoute

Distance

  • 7f to 1m2.5f: 3 wins from 16 runners (-7.45 points)
  • 1m4f to 1m6f: 4 wins from 6 runners (+7.26 points)

Odds

  • 7/2 or less: 7 wins from 11 runners (+10.81 points)
  • 4/1 or higher: 0 wins from 11 runners (-11 points)

Placing L.T.O.

  • First: 5 wins from 11 runners (+4.43 points)
  • Second: 1 win from 2 runners (+0.88 points)
  • Third: 1 win from 2 runners (+1.5 points)
  • Fourth or worse: 0 wins from 7 runners (-7 points)

Micro System 2

  1. Sir M Stoute
  2. 7/2 or less
  3. 1st, 2nd or 3rd LTO

7 winners from 10 runners (+11.91 points) Expected wins 3.48.

J.H.M. Gosden

Distance

  • 7f to 1m2.5f: 10 wins from 23 runners (+24.1 points)
  • All other distances: 0 wins from 9 runners (-9 points)

Age

  • 3-y-o: 7 wins from 18 runners (+13.35 points)
  • 4-y-o: 3 wins from 10 runners (+5.75 points)
  • 5-y-o +: 0 wins from 4 runners (-4 points)

Placing L.T.O.

  • 1st: 8 wins from15 runners (+21.72 points)
  • 2nd or worse: 2 wins from 17 runners (-7.62 points)

Micro System 3

  1. J.H.M. Gosden
  2. 7f to 1m2.5f
  3. 1st, 2nd or 3rd LTO

8 winners from 12 runners (+24.72 points) Expected wins 4.23

I hope you found the article useful and hopefully it will point us in the direction of some winners.