Stat Saturday 70% or better statiscal chance bets Including a stat for Sunday
I am looking @ the Ascot card and I am going stats based assessment today. There is a massive chance we fall into the back fitting trap though, however I will keep the set small that we work from, and attempt to just use the very best percentages. As I have 7 years data this is where we start. This is only a small pool, so we do run the risk of theses stats being useless. Any bet must be 70% stat or better.
13.05 There are a couple of strong stats here. You simply must have a horse that ran in a better class race last time out. 7/7 100% The next stat is price on s/p the ceiling was 11/2 or less. 11/2 s/p or less 100% Please note that the biggest betfair price was 7.6. Therefore I believe this price should be included in any predictions and is covered in the 100%. Age 4yo and 5yo are 6/7, 85% the other winner was a 6yo and this was last year. 5year olds are 4/7, 57% this is lower than ideal, and I personally would keep the 2 6 year old winners in to keep the overall percentage strong. The last very strong stat this is 27 days or less 100%. we could trim this to 14 daysor less 5/7, 71% and still keep a great percentage of winners. STAKE ACCLAIM just falls into the stat sheet with a betfair price of 7.6. I always strongly oppose taking early prices, however I would take 7/1 BOG and really hope this gets backed in to really cement this horse as a great stat based bet. I will look for more stat bets, but it does take quite a bit of time
13.40 The selection process and what we are left with for speed. 4 & 5 year olds. 9.03 and above. 49 days or less. 8/1 or less S/p. Betfair s/p 12.5 or less. 3 selections remain. The winner is likely to come from these. Swashbuckle. Graceland. Euchen Glen. Unlike the previous race it appears that dropping in class is not a strong factor here. Euchen Glen has a brilliant Dutch Jockey riding and I would not put anyone off this horse, but staying within our 70% we can actually pull another stat out the hat and demand the horse is rated 90+. 5/7 winners have fallen into this category, this I feel could be dangerous, and again we fall into the backfitting style I so hate. I need to get to 1 selection and now it is getting hard and I feel we are in danger of just starting to guess. We can now demand 2 or 3 wins. This makes me feel happier in eliminating Euchen Glen, 4 wins is not a good omen only last years winner carried this stat to victory, its a bad stat. However this does not help us split the 2 we have left. At this point I have to select a horse, I will go with my class method, on the evidence of the last run the classier horse is GRACELAND.
Winds. 15.25 This race normally falls to an improving 3yo filly. It is worth noting I am working from a vry limited data sheet here. Only 4 years is far from ideal, and at this point if you lose interest I will understand. I am quite keen to get Paradwys beaten here, she won a lower class contest than is ideal and would break the mould here if she wins. Also Pepita she looks short on requirements. This leaves me with Chupalla, and I was very tempted to take her solely on her much better rating than Angel of Darkness. The slight niggle with Chupalla is the fact she does not have a 6f win on her Cv, every previous winner had this achievement. This may be a mistake but with this information I will select ANGEL OF DARKNESS as the winner.
