Race Profiles - Cheltenham Day 3 - Shortlists
Well what I hae learned this week is never to change ones mind or criteria from a race from the original ones I posted - yesterday I changed the criteria for the JLT and dropped the Fred Winter and the original shorlists found both the 14/1 winner and 33/1
Now that I have got that off my chest onto today
JLT NOVICE CHASE
SHORTLIST
BALKO DES FLOS - Does seem better on soft or heavy ground and yet to win a race that is worth aboe 10k. When rested 31 days+:15111021, When racing in fields of 11 runners or less: 11113. LH track: 1 win from 6 (RH 3 wins from5)
DISKO - all wins have come on yielding or softer. 2m4f: 161, 8 to 11 runners: 1613, 31 to 60 days: 31, LH track: 131
FLYING ANGEL - does seem best rested between races as 1 to 60 days: 243513F3P, and 90 days+: 111, 8 to 11 runners: 1, February and March: 3112, Very Undulating track: 2FP.
POLITOLOGUE - has not had a lot to beat in his chase races to date but does jump well and although he acts on GTS not sure how well good ground will suit. All wins have come in fields of 1 to 7 runners. Cheltenham: U0, LH track: 2012 (RH track: 111)
TOP NOTCH - The horse has improed each run this season and was 5th in Champion Hurdle last year and 2nd in the Triumph the year before. He is an economical jumper who is most likely to trouble the fav. 31 to 60 days: 511, LH track: 5 wins from 11 runs.
CONCLUSION
I do feel that DISKO and POLITOLOGUE may take each other on up front today and I hope that this causes the fav to make mistakes as he has not been that fluent and as not impressive last time at Naas. TOP NOTCHhas improved all season and is a decent jumper so lets take a Win Bet on him at 4/1 with Paddy Power
RYANAIR CHASE
SHORTLIST
UXIZANDRE - If this horse does not bounce he coud well run a big race (won this race back in 2015) and he will like this drying ground: 2141, Cheltenham: 2112, 2m5f: 31, March 121.
JOSSES HILL - goes on the ground but let to prove that he is up to this Class of race as in Grade 1 races he is now 0 from 7, 8 to 11 runners: 113, 61 to 90 days: 1, Cheltenham: 238
CONCLUSION
There are question marks over both of the shorlisted runners and I will be sitting this race out.
WORLD HURDLE
SHORTLIST
LIL ROCKERFELLER - finished 2nd behind the fav at Ascot last time on only his second start over this distance and could sneak a place at a big price
UNOWHATIMEANHARRY - won the 3m Novice Hurdle last year on good ground and is clearly the best stayer around at the moment. Good ground: 3341, Cheltenham: 1111, Noel Fehily: 1111, Very Undulating track: 5 from 9.
CONCLUSION
Both horses could run well here but my fancy UNOWHATIMEANHARRY is too short a price so once again I will be sitting this race out
FESTIVAL PLATE
SHORTLIST
HENRYVILLE - the horse is better in the Spring/Autumn with a record in March to October of 6 wins from 20 runs. Whilst in all other months he is 0 from 8. In March only his record reads: 11241, with defeats coming at Exeter where he jumped out to the left and the other when 4th in the Coral Cup coming back after his last run in November - promising to see him run well in 3rd on last run in December. Good Ground: 4 from 15 and Noel Fehily 5 from19.
STARCHITECTthis one qulaifies for the D Pipe Chasers system I posted up on Tuesday and he was fifth in the County Hurdle last year. Will enjoy this step up in trip and on good ground record reads: 11245, GTF:1, 2m6f: 1.
CONCLUSION
Both horses have a chance in this race and I would back them both each way with SKYBET as they are offering the first 6 home. STARCHITECT is currently 7/1 and HENRYVILLE 25/1
KIM MUIR CHASE
SHORTLIST
ANOTHER HERO - good ground not a problem and has won oer 3m before. Cheltenham: 2, Class 2: 2862, LH track: 5 wins from10.
HADRIANS APPROACH - not raced in this class for while mainly racing in Grade 3 events and record in Class 2 reads: P21, 131 to 140 rating: 124.
DOCTOR HARPER best when rested between races and when racing 61 days+: 111919. Unseated when fav for this race last season and after been pulled up last time the stable have gone for the tongue tie and cheekpieces
SOUTHFIELD ROYALEHas been the subject of some oney for this race and did finish 4th in the 4m chase last season but was disappointing in the SkyBet on first run back this season. If back on song he could run well today. Good ground: 120, 31 to 60 days: 2117.
CONCLUSION
Difficult race to call this one as any of the 4 could run in this race but I am going to plump for HADRIANS APPROACH who may find this race a little easier than the Grade 3 he has been contesting he is available at 18/1 with Bet365 who offer the 1st 5 home
