Breeders Cup, Bob Bafferts Drefong Looks Too Good Again in the Sprint
19.37 Del Mar, Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint
Lady Aurelia and Marsha square up again after their photo finish at York where Marsha just prevailed. Both horses have drawn well in 3 and 6 but are very short in the market so it could be worth chancing the improving Disco Partner at a price.
Disco Partner has improved greatly this season following a switch from James Ryeson to the barn of Christophe Clement. He broke the 6 furlong track record at Belmont on his first run for his new trainer carrying a penalty, with a time of 1m 5.67 seconds. He has drawn in stall 1 and although he drops out, he should get a ground saving trip on the inner and if he gets the breaks he will be finishing fast. It’s his first try at 5 furlongs but has won twice over 5.5 furlongs so it not such a big cut back; he’s rated a 9/2 shot on the US morning line but can be backed at 17/2 with William Hill or on the exchanges.
Recommended Bet
Disco Partner, 17/2 Betfair and Paddy Power
21.00 Del Mar, Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf
This is looking a really tough race with 16 runners around 2 tight turns but I’m tempted to chance two at a price in Senga and Dacita.
It is easy to forget the Senga was the winner of this year’s Prix de Diane, she has a US dirt pedigree and when she finally got decent ground she proved how effective she could be on a quicker surface. It will be a lot quicker here and it could really suit her with work watchers reporting how well she is going, turning in impressive times in the lead up to the race. She is currently put in at 20/1 on the US morning line which does seem far too big while the 14/1 with the UK bookies is also a great price.
Dacita has to be backed at the price she is (20/1 with the UK bookies & 24.0 on the exchanges), she won the Beverly D at Arlington beating some class horses and nearly did the same in the Flower Bowl at Belmont when having to carry a penalty, just failing by a head.
Recommended Bet
Senga, 14/1 Bet365
Dacita, 30+ on the exchanges
21.37 Del Mar, Breeders’ Cup Sprint
Drefong is by far the best sprinter in the US, the winner of this race last year that did look a lot deeper than this year’s edition and comes in to this year’s race in the same form as last year after an early season blip. He is a front-runner and has a great draw in stall 2, 13/8 with the UK bookies is a fair price but you may get bigger on the exchanges.
Recommended Bet
Drefong, 2.80 on the exchanges
22.19 Del Mar, Breeders’ Cup Mile
The US speed horses in this race have all drawn inside stalls and if they don’t cut each other throats then the European milers will find it hard to get in a blow from their wide draws around this tight track. Midnight Storm in stall 1 is the speed in the race and he finished third in this race last year from an outside draw which forced him to race wide. He has been racing on dirt this year but he is a much better turf miler, and if he doesn’t get taken on for the lead early on he could be hard to peg back, at 25/1 he is worth chancing each way.
World Approval has been turning in some great races this year since dropping down to 1 mile; he has been leading in his races but he will be content to sit behind the likely strong pace here and kick in the straight from stall 5. He is currently a best priced 3/1 with the UK bookies, though I would have expected better but I can’t leave him out.
Recommended Bet
Midnight Storm, 25/1 (each way) generally
World Approval, 3/1 generally
00.35 Del Mar, Breeders’ Cup Classic
Bob Baffert is the trainer to side with here, but it could be either last year’s winner Arrogate at 9/4, if he returns to form or his rising star West Coast at 13/2. Baffert has won the last three renewals of this race with 3-year-olds, which favours West Coast so I’m tempted to back them both to level stakes and hope the 3-year-old can improve past Arrogate.
Recommended Bet
Arrogate, 9/4 Boylesports
West Coast, 13/2 Betfair and Betvictor
