Royal Ascot Trends and Stats 2017
  Above: Royal Ascot Trends and Stats 2017
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Royal Ascot Trends and Stats 2017

Following on from the successful look at the York Dante meeting last month, I would take a close look at Royal Ascot ( a five day meeting) and one that I hope will throw up some interesting stats that we can use to create some profitable micro systems. All are based on years 2012 onwards.

The first area I have looked at is how the favourites fare at the meeting

  • Favourite - 44 winners from 137 runners 32.12% (+10.45 points)
  • Joint Fav - 5 winners from 24 runners 20.83% (+5 points)
  • Co Fav - 0 winners from 3 runners (-3 points)
  • Non Favourites - 101 winners from 2265 runners 4.46% (-1073.17 points)

Obviously favourites perform well at this meeting and simply by backing all of the blindly would have resulted in a very small profit of 12.45 points.

Taking only the favourites I looked to see if there were any trends over certain distances

  • 5f: 4 wins from 21 runners (-6.75 points)
  • 6f: 7 wins from 26 runners (-1.2 points)
  • 7f: 3 wins from 14 runners (-1.27 points)
  • 1m: 13 wins from 39 runners (+5.04 points)
  • 1m2f: 7 wins from 16 runners(+4.93 points)
  • 1m4f: 7 wins from 27 runners (+4.88 points)
  • 2m: 3 win from 5 runners (+4.75 points)
  • 2m4f: 4 wins from10 runners (+4.32 points)
  • 2m5.5f: 1 win from 6 runners(-2.25 points)

We can see at a glance that the distances to pay attention to when backing a favourite are 1m to 2m4f.

Next I looked at the finishing position of the favourites

  • No Run: 5 wins from 12 runners (+2.55 points)
  • 1st: 31 wins from 91 runners (+20.24 points)
  • 2nd or worse 13 wins from 61 runners (-10.54 points)

It would seem wise to pay special attention to those favourites that won last time out, although I would not be put off by any horse racing for the first time (as HRB only does UK form this can include French raiders and horses coming from any other country.

Next I looked at the age of the favourites

  • 2-y-o - 9 wins from 32 runners (+0.36 points)
  • 3-y-o - 19 wins from 58 runners (+24.52 points)
  • 4-y-o - 15 wins from 41 runners (+10.97 points)
  • 5-y-o and older - 6 wins from 33 runners (-13.40 points)

It would certainly seem wise to follow the younger generation when backing favs at this meeting

MICRO SYSTEM 1

  1. All favourites at the meeting
  2. Racing at 1m to 2m4f
  3. Horses aged between 3-y-o and 4-y-o only
  4. Finished 1st on its previous run

22 winners from 44 runners producing a profit of 34.81 points

Finally I looked at which trainers perform well with their favourites at this meeting. The top 4 are listed below

  • Wesley Ward: 3 wins from 4 runners (75%) +7 points
  • JHM Gosden: 7 wins from 12 runners (58.33%) +12.73 points
  • AP O’Brien: 10 wins from 28 runners (37.91%) -2.36 points
  • Sir M Stoute: 7 wins from 21 runners (33.33% points) +4 points

Conversely the 3 trainers below have the worst record when their horses start favourite

  • R Varian: 0 wins from 4 runners
  • KA Ryan: 0 wins from 3 runners

MICRO SYSTEM 2

  1. Lesley Ward, JHM Gosden, AP O’Brien, Sir M Stoute
  2. 2-y-o to 4-y-o only
  3. LTO - No Run or 1st

20 winners from 39 runners producing a profit of 25.96 points

Using this micro system I now looked to see if the trainers favoured any distances and the table below shows some interesting results.

  • 5f: 3 wins from 5 runners (+6 points)
  • 6f: 2 wins from 5 runners (+0.38 points)
  • 7f: 0 wins from 4 runners (-4 points)
  • 1m: 3 wins from 6 runners (+4.01 points)
  • 1m2f: 4 wins from 4 runners (+8.75 points)
  • 1m4f: 3 wins from 10 runs (+4.25 points)
  • 2m: 2 wins from 2 runs (+4.25 points)
  • 2m4f: 3 wins from 3 runners (+5.32 points)

TRAINERS TO FOLLOW AT THE MEETING

There are only three trainers that usually do well with their runners at this meeting and they are

  • Sir M Stoute: 12 winners from 69 runners (+5.5 points)
  • JHM Gosden: 14 winners from 95 runners (+15.23 points)
  • AP O’Brien: 20 winners from 115 runners (+61.14 points)

I will now have a closer look at these trainers.

SIR M STOUTE

Distance

  • 6f to 7f: 0 wins from 6 runners (-6 points)
  • 1m: 1 win from 18 runners (-14.75 points)
  • 1m2f: 1 win from 11 runners (-8.25 points)
  • 1m4f: 8 wins from 28 runners (+32 points)
  • 2m: 1 win from 3 runners (+1 point)
  • 2m4f: 1 win from 3 runners (+1.5 points)

Age

  • 3-y-o: 4 wins from 35 runners (-12.75 points)
  • 4-y-o: 8 wins from 26 runners (+25.25 points)
  • 5-y-o and older: 0 wins from 7 runners (-7 points)

Race Class

  • Group 1: 1 win from 9 runners (-4.5 points)
  • Group 2: 7 wins from 22 runners (+28.5 points)
  • Group 3: 2 wins from 9 runners (-2.25 points)
  • Listed : 0 wins from 7 runners (-7 points)
  • Non Major: 2 wins from 22 runners (-9.25 points)

MICRO SYSTEM 3

  1. Sir M Stoute
  2. 1m4f to 2m4f
  3. 4-y-o only

7 wins from12 runners (610171121181) +36 points

JHM GOSDEN

Distance

  • 5f to 7f: 3 wins from 17 runners (+17.75 points)
  • 1m: 5 wins from 28 runners (+11.48 points)
  • 1m2f: 4 wins from15 runners (+1.3 points)
  • 1m4f: 2 wins from 23 runners (-3.5 points)
  • 2m or more: 0 wins from 12 runners (-12 points)

Age

  • 2-y-o: 3 wins from 9 runners (+27.75 points)
  • 3-y-o: 5 wins from 49 runners (-14.29 points)
  • 4-y-o: 5 wins from 23 runners (+11.25 points)
  • 5-y-o and older: 1 win from 14 runners (-7.5 points)

Placing LTO

  • 1st: 9 wins from 30 runners (+22.23 points)
  • 2nd or worse: 5 wins from 65 runners (-7 points)

Weight

All winners were weighted between 8.09 and 9.03

MICRO SYSTEM 4

  1. JHM Gosden
  2. 8-09 to 9-03
  3. LTO finished 1st
  4. 5f to 1m2f only

8 wins from 19 runners (3113730112103611613) +26.73 points

If we ignore his 3-y-o runners this becomes

5 wins from10 runners (1137103113) +27.00 points

AP O’BRIEN

Race Class

  • Non Major: 1 win from11 runners (Level)
  • Group 1: 5 wins from 37 runners (-21.35 points)
  • Group 2: 5 wins from 32 runs (+18.51 points)
  • Group 3: 4 wins from 17 runs (+28.75 points)
  • Listed: 5 wins from18 runs (+35.23 points)

Age

  • 2-y-o: 6 wins from 27 runners (+34.36 points)
  • 3-y-o: 9 wins from 56 runners (+36.66 points)
  • 4-y-o: 4 wins from 25 runners (-4.68 points)
  • 5-y-o and older: 1 win from 7 runners (-5.02 points)

Career Runs
1 to 10: 20 wins from 102 runners (+74.14 points)
11 runs+: 0 wins from 13 runners (-13.00 points)

Placing Last Time Out
1st, 2nd or 3rd: 17 wins from 74 runs (+71.64)
4th or worse: 3 wins from 41 runners (-10.50 points)

MICRO SYSTEM 5

  1. Career Runs: Between 1 and 10
  2. Group 2, Group 3 or Listed races
  3. LTO: 1st 2nd or 3rd
  4. LTO ran at Curragh, Newmarket(Rowley) or Doncaster

10 winners from 22 runners (6012231221522161111211) +49.49 points

Now if we only look at those runners ridden by Ryan Moore or JA Hefferman this becomes 8 winners from 13 runners(6132211111211) +49.74 points.

OTHER USEFUL MICRO SYSTEMS

MICRO SYSTEM 6

  1. Last Run Curragh
  2. Age - Between 3-y-o and 6-y-o
  3. LTO - 1st, 2nd or 3rd
  4. Days Since Last Run - 11 to 30 days

16 winners from 50 runners (+110.06 points)

MICRO SYSTEM 7

  1. LTO ran in a Group 1 race
  2. Racing in a Group 3 or Listed at Royal Ascot

5 winners from 10 runners (+33.50 points)

MICRO SYSTEM 8

  1. Listed or Non Group races
  2. Trainer - AP O’Brien
  3. Jockey - Ryan Moore

5 wins from11 runners (+19.23 points)

I hope you found the article useful and hopefully it will point us in the direction of some winners next week