Race Profiles - Midlands Grand National
I am going to stick with the race profiles as although we did not get a winner from our shortlisted horses there were plenty placed. However I think I am little to rigid with the rules looking at the factors that all 9 of the last runnings won with. I do feel that this approach needs to be a little more flexible and adaptable to the current running of the race.
With this in mind we will have a look at the 15.35 Uttoxeter THE MIDLANDS GRAND NATIONAL
KEY STAT No 1
Since 1997 not one winner was aged above 9-y-o's
This stat cuts the field in half
KEY STAT No 2
Over the last 9 runnings only horses that have never races or only raced once at this track have won this race
KEY STAT No 3
Over the last 9 runnings only horses that ran in a Novice Chase or Handicap Chase have won this race
KEY STAT No 4
Since 1997 only GB or IRE bred horses have won this race in fact since 1997 there have only been 5 GB bred winners and all the last 7 were IRE bred
KEY STAT No 5
Over the last 9 runnings every horse has ran before in a Listed race or above
Using these key stats we are left with a shortlist of the following horses
SPOOKYDOOKY, BLAKEMOUNT, OUT SAM, WARRANTOR, CHASE THE SPUD
Of the five left the three I like are:
SPOOKYDOOKY - the horse finished 4th in this last year and ran well last time out in the Devon National. All wins have come on a LH track and he goes well on soft ground
WARRANTOR - I have had this horse on my list to follow after his run in 4m chase at Cheltenham when he was going well until his saddle slipped. I think this distance will suit and this is easier than the the races he has been contesting. The horse likes soft and heavy ground and when racing 16 to 30 days after last race his record reads: 411P.
OUT SAMWas badly hampered at the first in the Eider and had no chance after that. He shapes as thought this distance will suit and last year was consider good enough to contest Grade 3 and Grade 1 races at Cheltenham and Aintree. The horse has 4 from 8 starts on soft ground and 3 from 6 on slightly undulating tracks
SKYBET are offering 1,2,3,4,5,6 and Corals and Paddy Power are offering 1,2,3,4,5
