Back-to-lay Some Are Lucky and Fort Worth
Some Are Lucky has traded below at least half his BSP in-running in 6 of his 9 runs to date, but in his last 6 runs he has traded down to less than 20% of his BSP 5 times and looks to have conditions in his favour to go close again.
He does seem to appreciate cut in the ground so today's soft ground will pose no problems. He is also cutting back in distance to 2m4f, having raced up to 3 miles recently. His last win came in April of last year over today’s distance, when hurdling. He likes to track the pace in his races and with Colins Brother looking the probable pace he should get a good sit in behind, along with the race favourite Kap Jazz, who will be hard to beat even with a 7lb penalty. In a tricky 4 runner handicap chase, Some Are Lucky looks a decent back-to-lay; he is currently trading around 4.0 on Betfair.
Both Fort Worth and Sir Ivan stand out in this race as back-to-lays, but it’s Fort Worth that gets the vote having won last time out, and having traded down to 1.25, 1.63, 2.50 and 1.14 in his previous 4 races makes him a great bet in this race as long as the ground doesn’t turn soft.
He is up 6lb for his last win, but he has run good races and traded low off higher marks within the last year, so can be relied on to run his usual race from an handicap point of view. He is a strong travelling horse that used to be held up, but is now ridden closer to the pace and if avoiding trouble in-running he looks a solid bet to be there at the finish; he currently trades around 4.60 for a back-to-lay.