Back-to-lay Paddy The Oscar and Jamrham
Paddy The Oscar has been struggling to get home over slightly longer distances, so this drop down to a little under 2m7f could help him go closer today, and trade low in-running.
He used to be an out-and-out front runner but has taken a step back of late and is quite happy to track the pace, but he still usually ends up making the lead late on which sees him trade low in-running. Last time out he traded all the way down to 3.0 in-running from a BSP of 11.74 and 3 runs back he traded all the way down to 1.09 from a BSP of 24.72, after opening up a considerable lead on the field two out, to then be collared on the flat and beaten 5 lengths in to second. Powerful Symbol looks the pace in the race, but Paddy The Oscar is more than capable of forcing it if there is no pace on as he is a thorough stayer; he currently trades around 12.0 on Betfair for a back-to-lay.
Jamrham and Midnight Mustang both appealed as possible back-to-lays in this race, but the lack of market support for Andrew Martin trained Midnight Mustang has to be worrying; with a SP forecast of 5/2, he currently trades around 7.20 on Betfair.
By contrast, Jamrham seems pretty solid in the market and this trip looks to suit him much better than Midnight Mustang, who has shown better form over slightly further. Jamrham has run once going right-handed, here over course and distance in a bumper in 2015, in which he was totally outclassed but still managed to trade down to 20.0 from a BSP of 1000! He has traded below at least half his BSP in-running in his last 4 races and today’s conditions like ideal for him to do so again; he currently trades around 4.90 for back-to-lay.