Uncle Benny Can Outrun His Odds in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf
19.21 Churchill Downs, Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint
There has been a huge amount of rain fall in the last few days and if the ground does come up yielding or soft then it has to be a big advantage to the Europeans. While being drawn wide is usually a disadvantage, especially in sprint races, it could be an advantage on soft turf where the inside is usually the slowest ground. If the ground has been adversely affected then I’ll chance Queen Of Bermuda at a big price (14/1 with the UK bookies, but could be bigger in the U.S. pools), drawn in stall 11, along with Soldier’s Call at 7/2 who looks more than good enough.
If the ground does ride good or just slightly yielding then I’d chance two Americans Bulletin who was an easy winner on his debut and Strike Silver, who can both be backed around 13.0 on Betfair. They both have inside draws and look like they could be the best of the home team.
21.22 Churchill Downs, Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf
Europe has dominated this race, winning 7 of the 11 editions of this race since it became part of the Breeders Cup in 2007. Aiden O’Brien and Ryan Moore have won this race 4 times and Anthony Van Dyck looks to have a similar profile to their previous winners. He’s 11/4 with the UK bookies and he’ll be popular in the U. S. pools so the price on offer with the bookies at home could be the safer option if you fancy him.
Anthony Van Dyck looks the most likely winner but I’ll chance one of the U. S. runners at a big price in Uncle Benny. He is trained by New York based Jason Servis who is having his best year to date, who boasts a near 32% strike-rate in 2018. He is yet to have a Breeders Cup winner, but he came close in 2013 when Tightend Touchdown finished second in the Breeders Cup Turf Sprint. Uncle Benny has won both his starts to date, first on the dirt over 5 furlongs and last time out when switching to turf over 6 furlongs. This is a big step up in class but the way he won his last race was impressive, coming from last to first in the straight after being impeded after the break from his wide draw, he was left trailing the field but circle the field to win going away. He is a huge horse and being an early January foal he has a physical advantage over most of those in opposition. His win in the Futurity Stakes last time out had earned him an automatic fees paid berth in to the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint but connections have stumped up the money to get him in to this race and on breeding he should be well suited to the mile on turf; at 20/1 with the UK bookies he’s worth chancing in this open race.
Uncle Benny, 20/1 each-way with Paddy Power and Betfair