Tatvan Incisi to Make Up For Last Year in the Istanbul Trophy
5.30 Istanbul, Anatolia Trophy
The overseas horses have been so dominant in this race and with 4 runners up against the home team it is going to be difficult for the Turkish again. Last year’s winner Belgian Bill returns again and is a fair price at 8/1 to win it again.
The Francis Rohaut trained Qurbaan is the favourite, he’s won multiple times on the polytrack in France but his trips overseas haven’t been fruitful in the past. Godolphin’s Leshlaa was an impressive winner of a maiden on his first outing on a synthetic surface but had no run last time out at Chelmsford, with Saeed bin Suroor doing so well here, his runners are respected.
While the Europeans are the ones to beat, I’ll chance the Turkish 3-year-old Cerastes at 12/1 eachway. He has won 5 of his 7 races and was placed on the other two times. He likes to race up with the pace, and led last time when winning a valuable Turkish group 1 race. While it’s hard to guage how competitive he’ll be against the UK English and French runners, he looks the best of the home team.
Cerastes 12/1, Racebets
6.30 Istanbul, Istanbul Trophy
The Saeed bin Suroor trained Arabian Hope is the only overseas contender in this 5 runner race. She sets the clear standard on her third place finish in the Falmouth Stakes behind Roly Poly, beaten just under 2 lengths. She failed to live up to that form the next time out behind Roly Poly again at Deauville, in the hotly contested Prix Rothschild, in which she finished last, over 9 lengths behind the winner.
A less competitive race should suit her better, but it’s also possible that the travelling affected her, at a best priced 1/2 I will swerve her and give the local horse Tatvan Incisi a chance.
Tatvan Incisi ran in this race last year, finishing third to Goldolphin’s Promising Run. More was expected of her and her stable mate Willpower just lost out in a photo to the Goldolphin runner. Tatvan Incisi is rated 9lb superior to Willpower had had finished in front of her in previous runs so it shows she is clearly capable of better and competitive against international raiders.
At distances from 7 furlongs up to 10.5 furlongs Tatvan Incisi is one of Turkeys leading filly’s, having won 4 of her last 5 over those distances, the only loss coming in this race last year. If she is on song this time, she should just have Arabian Hope to beat and at 5/1 that is a decent price.
Tatvan Incisi 5/1