Take On West Coast With Timeline in the Pennsylvania Derby
10.45 Parx, Pennsylvania Derby
Bob Baffert fields West Coast here and he is going to be tough to beat on the back of his impressive Travers win. He burst in to the limelight in similar fashion to last year’s winner Travers winner Arrogate, though not as visually impressive he was still an easy winner with plenty of quality horses in behind. He made all in the Travers, where he was given an easy time in the lead, settling steady fractions upfront. He won’t be able to do the same here as he’ll have to contend with Timeline drawn in 1, Irish War Cry and Outplay who are very speedy.
Timeline was made favourite for the Haskell Invitational on the back of four wins in lesser company. He could only finish fifth in that race, beaten just over 8 lengths by Girvin. There are reasons to believe that he is much better than what he showed that day as he pulled hard early and they probably went off too quick as anything near the pace dropped away quickly in the straight, with Girvin coming from way off the pace to pick up the pieces.
He is available at 8/1 with the UK bookies but is forecast at just 5/1 on the US morning line so it’s worth taking the early price with our bookies. As a pace horse drawn in stall one he has the perfect position and as long as he doesn’t go off to hard he could hold them off. Though he’s a decent price that you could back each-way, I don’t see him as a reliable each-way bet, as if he doesn’t win I can see him dropping away tamely if he gets the fractions wrong or doesn’t settle again.
If you are looking for a bigger priced runner that could sneak in to the first 3, then Outplay could be the one to side with at 25/1. He has placed in all 6 races to date, include winning 3 wins, though at a lesser level and also finished third to West Coast earlier in June. Game Over could also find his way in to the first 3 at 28/1; he is forecast to go off at half those odds on the morning line.