Race Profiles - Cheltenham Day 1 THE SHORTLISTS
Although I put profiles up for 4 races today I am only going to cover three of them as I feel that I backfitted the Ultima Chase and when I revisted using some more relevant stats there were no qualifiers
The conclusions are my view on the race and I have been picking the wrong one recently I certainly hope that the shorlists prove useful to you
SUPREME NOVICE HURDLE
HIGH BRIDGE
Has won all three starts over hurdles and has won on ground ranging from good throught to soft. Has won on an undulating track as well so this track should not be a problem. Was 6th in the Bumper here last year and 3 recent winners did contest that race.
Other Stats - Stable 1 year course form 0 wins from 18 runners. Last time out winners stable has a 27% strike rate
RIVER WLYDE
Another to hae won all three starts this season on ground ranging from good throught to soft. Won a Grade 2 at Kempton last time out and has won 4 times when racing 16 to 60 days after last race. Stable won the race last year
Other Stats - Stable Distance Range 28.2% SR. Stable LTO winner 27.8% SR. In top 3 rated by HorseRaceBase
PACE
There looks as though there will be alot of pace in this race are there are a lot of horses that like to race prominently or lead
CONCLUSION
I do like the look of HIGH BRIDGE but the trainers record at this track is slightly of putting but I could not put you off backing him at the price he currently is which is around the 16/1 mark. RIVER WLYDE looks to hae strong claims from a yard that won this race last year and of the two shortlisted he is one I feel that has the strongest credentials and he is currently trading at around 8/1 and looks a decent each way bet
CHAMPION HURDLE
YANWORTH
The horse was 2nd in the Neptune last year and does deserve to take his chance in what is a substandard race. There are a couple of niggles in that he would have taken part in the Stayers had his owner not had the short priced fav. He can also be a clumsy jumping and a fast two miles will test this to the max
Other Stats - Stable last time out winners 27.18% SR. Top Speed rated - Geegeez Gold and Top Rated HRB rating
BRAIN POWER
Is a fascinating runner and I am not suprised that he is in this race as it does lack strength in depth. Won a handicap last time out very easily and before that a Listed race. I do fell that this faster ground will suit (all wins hae come on GTS/Good ground - 5 wins from 7 runs) and 4 of his 5 wins have come in fields of 8 to 15 runners.
Other Stats - Stable LTO winners 27.8% SR
PACE
The two most likely to lead are The New One and Petit Moucher
CONCLUSION
YANWORTH is the class horse in this race and it will be interesting to see how he runs back down in trip but is not really for me at the current odds. I am going to take a risk on BRAIN POWER each way at the current odds of 7/1
JTM NATIONAL HUNT CHALLENGE CUP FOR AMATEUR RIDERS
A GENIE IN A BOTTLE
Ridden by a very good amateur this horse looks to be a genuine staying type and I hope that the ground will not be an issue (has place on GTS and faster but all wins have come on soft and heavy)
Other Stats - Stable 1 year course form 2 runners 1 place. Distance Move - 17.31% SR
ARPEGE DALENE
I feel that this drying ground will be in the horses favour as best runs have been on GTS and good ground (GTS:151) and he does like he may enjoy this extra distance. Cheltenham: 223 and when racing in Feb and March: 1142
Other Stats - Stable 1 year course form - 10 wins from 88. Distance Move - 20.8%SR
BIGBADJOHN
Did win a Grade 2 chase at Ascot last time out and has won on good through to heavy ground. When racing 16 to 60 days: 12P11, when racing in Feb to June: 121P1
Other Stats - Stable 1 year course form 1 wins from 28 runners, Distance Move 15%, LTO winner 13.7% SR
MARTELLO TOWER
Has won at the Festival in 2015 and has run in Grade 1 and Grade 2 chases this season without much success. The yard is shrewd and does not have many runners here and they now step the horse up in trip and reach for the blinkers. The horse has won on GTY and in fields of 16 runners+ record reads: 12, when racing 31 to 60 days: 1117 and when racing in March to May: 417111.
Other Stats - Stable 5 year course form - 2 winners from 4 runners
PACE
To difficult to call with all the runners taking a big step up in trip
