Race Profile - Imperial Cup 15.00 Sandown
The Imperial Cup is a hurdles race ran days before the start of the Cheltenham Festival and is a race that a lot of the big stables target as there is a bonus for any horse that goes on to win a race at the Festival. Martin Pipe has done particularly well in this race winning 4 times in the last 12 years.
There are some strong trends for this race and the ones Listed below I felt are most worthy of inclusion for this years event. One key stat that I have not included is the weight as all the last 9 winners carried 11-01 or less however that was when one or two horses carried 11-02 or more whilst this year most of the field carries 11-00 or more
- Age - Between 4-y-o and 8-y-o
- Runs Season - Bewteen 2 and 5
- Horses Wins NH Race Type - Between 1 and 2
- Highest Class Win - Class 2, 3 or 4
- Max Distance ran - Between 2m1/2f and 2m5f
- Days Since Last Run - 16 to 120 days ago
Using these trends we are left with the following 4 horses
GASSIN GOLF
I really don't feel that this horse stays much beyond this distance and therefore two of his last four runs can be discounted. Unfortunately he did not get much therefore than the third last time out, but he did show decent form when fifth in the Scottish Champion Hurdlelast season where he finished 5th. He does go well at this track as a record of 23 shows. He also handles soft ground
LONDON PRIZE
The horse does handle GTS ground but the speed they were finishing yesterday this is clearly soft jumping ground and that is a slight worry. He was going well at Mussleburgh the time before last when falling and was then given a confidence boosting run on the AW. As long as the soft ground and that fall do not play there part he could go well
KAYF BLANCO
Ran a cracking race last time out to place 5th in th super competitive Betfair Hurdle. The time before he was hampered by a faller when keeping on at Exeter and before that ran well when finishing second in a Listed race at this track. Both of his wins have come on soft ground and when racing at 2m1/2f or less so clearly todays conditions are ideal. Both wins have come when racing 8 to 30 days after last race and when racing on flat or slightly undulating tracks
NOT ANOTHER MUDDLE
The only horse that would fulfill the weight trend as carrying less than 11-00. He is lightly raced and it is interesting that connections feel that he is up to this raise in class. The return to this RH track will help as well as the fact the stable usually do well here. The strong pace may also help him settle. He clearly stays a little further and will not be stopping for lack of stamina
PACE
There are several horses that like to race prominently and two that like to be at the front namely FIXE LE KAP and BIGMATRE. This track and distance tend to suit horses that race prominently
CONCLUSION
I am going to settle for 2 of the 4 runners in KAYF BLANCO (best odds 11/1) who is proven in this class of race and the lightly raced NOT ANOTHER MUDDLE (best odds 8/1)
