RACE PROFILES - IRISH GRAND NATIONAL 2017
KEY TRENDS
OFFICIAL RATING
143+ - 0 wins from 29 runners
124 to 137 - 0 wins from13
All 9 winners had a rating of 128 to 142
ORIGIN OF HORSE
IRE - 9 wins from187 runners
GB, USA, FR, GER - 0 wins from 53 runners
LAST RUN RACE TYPE
0 or 4 or more - 0 wins from 41 runs
1 to 3 runs - 9 wins from 199 runs
LAST RUN RACE TYPE
Last 9 wins had previous run in Handicap Chase, Novice Chase or Novice Hurdle
Non Handicap Chase - 0 from 35 runs
Handicap Novice Chase - 0 from 15
Handicap Hurdle - 0 from 28
All other race types - 0 from 19
POSITION IN WEIGHTS
Top 4 - 0 wins from 38 runs
Bottom Weight - 0 wins from 12
HORSE RUNS NH RACE TYPE
2 to 3 runs - 0 from 5
14 plus - 1 from 61
I used the following trends to break down the race OFFICIAL RATING, ORIGIN OF HORSE, LAST RUN RACE TYPE and HORSE RUNS LAST 90 days
This left me with the following shortlist - HAYMOUNT, BONNY KATE, STELLAR NATION and ROGUE ANGEL
Of these BONNY KATE and ROGUE ANGEL do seem to have a preference for softer ground STELLAR NATION ran in the Grand National last time and was pulled up and I am not sure that he stays this trip if he did the ground will suit
HAYMOUNT (each way 12/1 Bet365 1,2,3,4,5
The horse ran a blinder in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham last time out finishing 3rd and 4 winners of this race hae come from that race, he has not raced on ground this fast for a while but it was GTS at Cheltenham and he did win a bumper on good ground
