Northern Dancer Turf Stakes and Woodbine Mile Stakes Preview
10.31 Woodbine, Northern Dancer Turf Stakes
Hawkbill looks head and shoulders above the American and Canadian runners, but he has to concede weight all-around and it’s going to be on the quick side which isn’t ideal as he’s run poorly on firm ground in the past. Messi looks the best of the home team but at the prices I will give the local Canadian horse Noble Thought at 9/1 a chance. He has only failed to finish in the first 3 twice so he could be a fair each way bet, and if Hawkbill doesn’t take to the track he could pick up the pieces at a decent price.
Noble Thought , 9/1 each way
11.34 Woodbine, Woodbine Mile Stakes
There are several decent English and Irish runners taking in the American and Canadian and it’s the home team that have fared best regards the draw. 5 Of the 12 runners are from Europe, with the lowest drawn being Deauville drawn in number 6.
I’m going to side with the two horses drawn in stalls 1 and 2 in this race, World Approval in stall 1 and the Canadian runner Tower Of Texas in 2. World Approval is a regular in these big group 1 turf races but he’s been struggling to win over 10 and 12 furlong races, but this year he has dropped down to 1 mile and 1 mile and a furlong with great results. He just didn’t seem to be getting home over longer distances and was usually caught in final furlong after setting the pace upfront. Stepping down in distance, he has taken a stalking position and won all 3 races over these shorter distances, though there doesn’t look a great deal of pace in today’s race so he could lead. Drawn in install 1, he should get a great trip on the rail and although he has to concede weight all-round he is a great bet at 6/1 with the UK bookies; he’ll probably 2 or 3 points shorter in the pools at Woodbine.
The Canadian local runner Tower Of Texas finished second in this race last year to Tepin and didn’t enjoy the smoothest of passages late on. Drawn close to the rail he shouldn’t be too far away from the lead and at 16/1 he could place again.
World Approval, 6/1 William Hill (you will probably get bigger on the exchanges)
Tower Of Texas, 16/1 each way