Horse Profiles for the National Hunt 2017/18 October 15th
16.35 Chepstow VILLAGE VIC (2pts win 4/1 Bet365)
The horse made the final cut of the new book but as it did not win a race last season he was not included however he did make my list of horses that run well after a 90 days+ break when racing in October and November.
I hope that he is allowed to dictate today as that is when he is at his best, like in in his first run last season when only beaten a neck in the BetVictor Gold Cup Handicap Chase at Cheltenham. The yard had the big winners yesterday and once again they will be trying with his horse.
Profile
Track - Chepstow: 1
Going - GTS ground: 2212 (good ground: 3 wins from 9 starts)
Distance - 2m3.5f to 2m4f: 44111
Days Since Last Run - 121 days+: 211213
Jockey - R Johnson: 6 wins from 22 rides
Field Size - all wins have come in fields of 15 runners or less
Track - 3 wins on very undulating tracks and all wins have comeon tracks with stiff or very stiff fences
In-running Angle
Double Shuffle ran a great race to finish second in this race last year off a 10lb lower mark; trading down to 2.12 from a BSP of 7.60. He lacked for pace as the race heated up and it could be the same again today over this trip of 2m4f which doesn't make him a great back-to-lay. He should finishing strongly if he's ready first time out, especially as there is quite a lot of pace in the race.
Arthurs Oak, Village Vic, Wadswick Court and Different Gravy are likely to be forcing the pace and with Wadswick Court the only runner with a recent outing he could travel well for a long way just behind the pace with a fitness edge. He has traded below at least half his BSP in his last 5 outings over this kind of distance and ran well last time out in a class 1 handicap for a long way before fading badly; he currently trades around 17.0 for a back-to-lay.
A strong pace could really suit Mystifiable who looks to be on the upgrade; he travels well in his races before moving in to contention; he seems really solid in the market, currently around 9 on Betfair.
Recommended Trade
Back-to-lay Wadswick Court at 17.0
