Horse Profiles for the National Hunt 2017/18
15.15 Carlisle Handicap Chase (Class 3)
A fascinating chase race for this early in the season and we have 4 profile runners in the race.
SILVER TASSIE - may still be a little high in the weights as a record of 0 wins from 13 runs when racing off a mark of 131+ shows. Prefer to wait for mark to drop before getting involved with this one.
CARRIGDHOUN - loves this track (4 wins from 8 starts) but has yet to win in 15 attempts on soft or heavy ground. The horse won this race last year but this is a far better renewal
BALLYBEN - won well at Perth the first time he has won after a break and he is from a stable that likes to leave something to work on and could improve again. Stays well and the strong pace may well suit him Goes well here: 132, ground is not an issue and when racing in October: 13131.
I JUST KNOW - unlike a lot from the stable goes well fresh and he seems to have a very strongprofile for this race. Chase runs - 31 days+: 11P1. Class 3 and below: 11221, 1 to 11 runners: 21121, undulating/very undulating tracks: 11.
There is one fly in the ointment and that is Vic De Touraine as the stable can get her chasers ready after a break of 151 days+: 29 from 150 (+62.92 points). However would like to see that the horse stays this far and stable have not had a winner in last 180 days.
On the profiles this looks between I JUST KNOW and BALLYBEN (a friend who likes speed ratings just favours I JUST KNOW and I have to agree) If I JUST KNOW can get into a lead He may take some catching. Looking at Geegeez speed maps he may well be able to do that (other pace coming from Alderbrook Lad and Carrigdhoun).
Selection - I JUST KNOW
Danger - Ballyben
