Back-to-lay Poetic Queen and Kilbree Chief
Poetic Queen has finished a close second in her last two races, including last time out over course and distance 3 weeks ago. She was beaten less than a length each time and traded down to 1.53 in-running from a BSP of 15.63 last time out and down to 1.68 from a BSP of 19.02 the time before.
She is by far the most experienced in this field with 6 previous runs under her belt; she has traded below at least half her BSP in-running in all those runs. She likes to race prominently and prior to the last two runs she had front-run in her races, but has taken a back-seat behind the leaders in her last 2 runs which have seen her go closest to registering a first win in maiden company. Poetic Queen currently trades around 5.20 for a back-to-lay.
Kilbree Chief and Nakadam fought out a tight finish in this race last year, with Kilbree Chief just prevailing by a neck with the pair well clear of the rest of the field.
Kilbree Chief carries top weight again, racing off a rating just 1lb higher whereas Nakadam races off a mark 12lb higher than last year’s race. Both have been trading low in-running in recent races but it’s Kilbree Chief that could be the one to profit from here, as he seems to save his best for Ayr and a repeat in this race could have been a season target for him. In the 4 chases he has contested at Ayr, he has traded below at least half his BSP in-running and has placed 3rd, 2nd, 1st and 2nd in those races; he looks a great back-to-lay, he currently trades around 6.60 on Betfair.