9.35 Sha-Tin: Chairman’s Trophy
All eyes are going to be on the multiple classic winning Rapper Dragon in this 1 mile group 2 race. He looks likely to go off odd-on in his first try at pattern company against his elders, though he did take on and beat Beauty Only by just over a length, albeit in receipt of 16lbs in an handicap last May.
He is 11lb worse off today but could well beat that opponent again as he has improved and turned in some great performances since then.
It could be worth chancing Contentment at 20/1 in today’s race. The race conditions favour him, having to only carry 8-11, the same as the younger Rapper Dragon and 5lbs less than his usual opponents, the likes of Helene Paragon, Beauty Only, Designs On Rome and Werther.
Werther is a quality horse but really wants 10f+ to be seen at his best, blazing speed will also find this distance too short. Designs On Rome does have the speed for a mile but has been way below form for quite a while; he finished third in this race last year, in front of Contentment who went off the odds-on for this race carrying a penalty. Contentment is the equal in terms of performances with Beauty Only and maybe just a length or so behind Helene Paragon, so a 5lb swing in the weights could be a big enough of a factor to swing it the way of Contentment.
Contentment is available at 20/1 with Paddy Power, which looks even better as an each-way bet with the favourite making up so much of the market. The race is made up of horses that are going to struggle for pace a 1 mile, Contentment will probably try to make all, a place looks no worse than an even money shot if Brett Prebble can get his own way upfront.