2017 Prix Morny Preview
English raiders make up 3 of the 8 runners this year which is missing a Wesley Ward representative, having won it last year and in 2013, also there is no Ballydoyle runners this time around. This has been a tough race for the French to win, having won it last in 2011 with Dabirsim, then you have to go all the way back to 2004 for the previous French victory with Pascal Bary’s Divine Proportions.
This race has been dominated by the colts in recent times, until Lady Aureilia’s win last year, but she is a stand-out horse. You have to go back to 2005 for the previous filly to win this race and this year’s betting is dominated by fillies that make up the first 4 in the betting with the UK bookies.
The filly, Different League was an impressive winner of the Albany at Royal Ascot and is undefeated in 3 runs and Zonza also comes in to the race with the same stats but at a lower level.
High Dream Milena looked an unlucky loser in the Prix Robert Papin where she suffered interference late on by the eventual winner Unfortunately, who re-opposes again today. She sat out the back and appeared to lack the speed when the pace picked up, before staying on to be beaten just over a length. Previously she beat Tantheen in a maiden for unraced fillies; she re-opposes again today and is strangely much shorter in the betting. Tantheem has gone on to win her last 2 races impressively after finishing second to High Dream Milena, in a race in which she missed the break, but I’m inclined to think High Dream Milena will confirm the placing’s again.
All the stats point to an English colt winning the race, which brings in Karl Burke’s 2 runners, Havana Grey and Unfortunately. Currently they are shorter on the PMU than with the UK bookies. It’s also interesting to note how weak the French filly Different League is currently on the PMU at 6.1, with Equidia’s forecast not even including her in the first 5 places. She was as short as 5/4 with Racebets when the ante-post markets opened.
Christophe Ferland has had great success with his juveniles, having trained the 2011 winner Dabirsim, who was champion 2-year-old that season. Dabirsim is producing some great off-spring as a stallion, especially as juveniles with Different League and High Dream Milena flying the flag and he’s also responsible for the once raced colt Dameron who is trained by Ferland himself.
Dameron is pitched in at the deep end here after finishing second in a maiden for unraced colts. I will chance him at 66/1 each way based on his trainers confidence to step him up to group 1 company. He must be showing ability at home to tackle the likes of Different League and with him also being a colt it is a stat that is very much in his favour.
Of the others I would be tempted by the 9/1 available with Racebets on High Dream Milena. Different League did me a great favour in the Albany at 50/1 and the prices on the PMU do look tempting but the market weakness is worrying, though this could be down to the 2 month lay-off but you would expect her ready for such a big prize.
Recommended Bets
Dameron, 66/1 each-way, Generally
