13.10 Maisons-Laffitte, True Romance in the Prix Coaraze
Andre Fabre’s Cascadian and the Francis-Henri Graffard trained True Romance look like they could be very good colts in this 7 furlong conditions race. Cascadian is the likely favourite on the back of a very impressive debut, followed by a second place finish behind Mythical Magic at Deauville. He has struggled with the break in both races but has managed to get himself back in to his races, finishing strongly. He won his debut race at Chantilly by 4.5 lengths on good ground, showing great acceleration but the soft ground seemed less to his liking next time out. Though he was a beaten favourite in his second outing, it was still decent form. The big worry with him today has to be the forecast ground, which is currently very soft (3.8 on the petrometer).
The soft ground won’t be a problem for True Romance who was an easy winner of a 6.5 furlong event here on the 11th of September. He was beaten on his debut on ground described as good to soft, but greenness was probably a bigger factor in him been collared late in the race after looking likely to win. He travels well in his races and quickened up nicely. While Cascadian’s form is probably better than that of True Romance, they could be quite closely matched.
The current betting sees Cascadian as the 1.3 favourite on the PMU, with True Romance at 5.6. No bookmakers are putting up prices for this event so you can’t lock in a price, though there is betting on the exchanges but with very little liquidity. For me, 5.6 would be a great price on True Romance, but you would be wise to wait until just before the race to see what price he is likely to go off at; I would think 3/1 (4.0 on the PMU) or greater would be a price to get involved. Cascadian is sure to be popular being trained by Andre Fabre, but he hasn’t run since the 12th of August so it could be a great opportunity to take him on as he may not like the ground also.
True Romance, 4.0+ on the PMU or Exchanges